Ultegra Di2
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The repairable spokes of Madfiber wheels |
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Cannondale's new Slice was ridden by some of Liquigas's top riders at some late season races. |
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The repairable spokes of Madfiber wheels |
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Cannondale's new Slice was ridden by some of Liquigas's top riders at some late season races. |
Tour Director Christian Prudhomme wanted to create an exciting TOUR right from the start. Through his creativity and vision we have been able to sit back and enjoy daily excitement. The Tour de France is always a special event, but the "new" TDF is an exciting and unpredictable race. What no one was expecting was the multitude of crashes that have taken almost half the overall contenders out of the picture. Still, we can't put the burden of responsibility on the organization for this bad luck. It's the peloton, and when almost every rider there is dreaming of pinning on a number and making a name for himself, the risks are high.
The race has just left the Pyrenees and people are already talking about who is going to win. To be honest, we now know who the best climbers are and this particular talent will once again shape the final GC result. We’ve still got 6 riders in contention, but what people are REALLY talking about is Thomas Voeckler and team Europcar! Voeckler’s faithful lieutenant, Pierre Roland, is a stud and has been successful in past Tour's. But let's take a step back for a second and remember what took place late last fall with the almost total demise of Bbox Bouygues Telecom – which is now Voeckler’s Europcar team.
It’s late fall and BBox is on the verge of folding. Thomas Voeckler has multiple secure and high paying offers to leave but what does he do? He stands by his long time mentor and team director, Jean-René Bernaudeau and does not jump off the sinking ship. True, Voeckler raised the stress level pretty high for everyone by waiting till the bitter end to make his team decision, and he continually pushed back a meeting that was scheduled with Cofidis on the final day of the decision. But just before the deadline strikes which would have sent BBox – and all its riders – into the annals of history, Voelkler commits and the team signs a new contract with Europcar. The team is saved and the rest is history.
Talk about leadership! Wouldn't you ride yourself into the ground for a team leader like that?!! Europcar has created something special and all the money in the world can't buy this type of connection. Is good karma enough to hold on to the yellow jersey? In my heart, I sure hope so. Voeckler has the heart of a lion and who doesn't want an underdog to pull off the miracle. The numbers don't add up, but F#@% the numbers! He has the yellow jersey and he is not about to just give it away. He is riding above his capability and that is what champions do. Living in the moment, crushing it on the bike, and laughing and smiling when he’s done each day. He has nothing to lose.
Anyone could learn from Voeckler. Do you think he is looking at a power meter? I know he doesn't have one, but learn from this! A power meter has very little use in the middle of a stage race when you do whatever is necessary at any given moment. When you look at your powermeter after the fact, more often than not you’ll surprise yourself by blowing away your previous expectations. Live in the moment, execute your plan and see what the competition throws at you. I’ll admit, his ultimate chances are still small – but didn't a 40 year old win the Tour of California this year!?
OK back to the racing analysis…the TDF has not even entered the Alps and we now know who the best climbers are at the moment: Schleck x 2; Basso; Evans; Contador; and...Voeckler. The attrition doesn't lie. Some riders are better placed but these are the guys that are watching each other and making the moves at the critical times. Of course, Pierre Rolland is up there but since he is a domestique I have not included him in the mix. Even the greatest Tour rider of all time, Lance Armstrong called Rolland and Voelker out two days ago on Twitter…"He has 2:06 on Evans. Final TT is 42km. He's French. It's the Tour de France. He won't lose 2:06 in the final time trial assuming he keeps them close on Alpe d'Huez. His teammate Pierre Rolland has been a rock star and has to continue to be. Lastly, the dude knows how to suffer. Will be fun to watch."
There are two, possibly three, stages left in order for the blue chippers to take the yellow away from TV: Stage 17 into Italy on Pinerolo; and then the final big two - Stage 18 summit finish at Serre-Chevaller, and Stage 19 classic on the summit of Alpe-d'Huez. So far it's been cat and mouse with Evans, Basso, Contador and the Schlecks each nullifying each other’s attacks. This has played into the hands of TV as well as Evans. If this continues and Voelkler’s legs continue to surprise him, he will podium in Paris! Contador has a lot to make up and we'll see if Evans can continue his fine form.
At this moment in time, I give the edge to Evans since he really "only" (and do I use this term VERY loosely) needs to hang on and watch the others attack each other. Evans improved leg speed has allowed him to follow the accelerations of the Schleck's and Contador on the climbs, and that has been the main reason he is poised to make history next week. There is a week of exciting racing left and I'll be glued to the TV to see how the race unfolds. Enjoy it!
Coach Walton
To get things started, this year I've created an initial rider ranking system to open up some discussions! In short, I weighed past results, athlete strengths, team support, and team goals. I've followed closely this year the results of the traditional build up races towards the Tour de France - the Giro, Dauphine, Suisse, and National Championships - and I've reminded myself of last year's Tour results. In the end, results don't lie, and they are the primary indicator of upcoming performance. Without real results, all we've got is a bunch of speculation.
Check out my PREDICTION SPREADSHEET. Each rider is rated on each category on a scale of one to five with 5 being the strongest score.
1. Climbing: Pretty straight forward. Natural ability. 125 pound power to weight freaks. The guys are ranked against each of the top riders.
2. Time Trialing: Again, pretty straight forward but I have weighed more heavily time trial performance during stage races. Again, ranking is against each of the contenders.
3. Peak, Progress and Goal: Who set out to peak for the Tour back in the beginning of the year and who is progressing or "peaking" according to plan? You may lose a half point if you were flying back in May - an indication of poor seasonal planning.
4. Team: Ranking of the strength of each rider's complete team. Climbers, team time trialists, roulleurs (able to sit on front of group and set tempo for 100km's), directors with strategic experience, etc.
5. Recovery: This ranking is a little more subjective than the rest. (Pun intended) I judged riders by their "bad days" in the Grand Tours, their results through the final days of stage races, results on back to back to back mountain stages, results the day after time trials, etc. I also look at rider technique and skill - how do they generate their power, how does their technique change in different performances? Ultimately, this category influences the race leaders more than anything else!
6. Past Life: Pretty simple, show me a resume! Who has done it in the past in the big ones!
7. X-Factor : See individual comments in my PREDICTION SPREADSHEET
It will be a nontraditional road race start this year and Tour Director Christian Prudhomme has made the first week eventful. The riders start by going over the Passage du Gois, an epic roadway that disappears under high tide! Stage Two is a 23km team time trial, followed by more stages through the heavy, punchy roads of Brittany. The Tour will not be won in the first week but it could be lost! Stay out of trouble and conserve as best you can is the goal for overall contenders through the first week. Look for Columbia to win the TTT over Garmin, and Cavendish to be in yellow early followed closely by the always-classy Gilbert. And for anyone who thinks that Contador will easily cruise to victory, keep in mind that the last time anyone pulled off the "double" (win the Giro and Tour in the same calendar year) was in 1998 by the late, great Marco Pantani. The deck is stacked against him.
Enjoy the race and my forthcoming commentary, and feel free to chime in with your own take, too!
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